U.S. Leading Economic Index Drops Slightly More Than Expected In June

Suggesting U.S. economic activity will continue to decelerate in the months ahead, the Conference Board released a report on Thursday showing its reading on leading economic indicators fell by slightly more than expected in the month of June.

The Conference Board said its leading economic index slid by 0.7 percent in June after falling by a revised 0.6 percent in May.

Economists had expected the leading economic index to decrease by 0.6 percent compared to the 0.7 percent drop originally reported for the previous month.

“The US LEI fell again in June, fueled by gloomier consumer expectations, weaker new orders, an increased number of initial claims for unemployment, and a reduction in housing construction,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

Zabinska-La Monica noted the leading index declined for the fifteenth straight month, marking the longest streak of consecutive decreases since the run-up to the Great Recession in 2007-08.

“We forecast that the US economy is likely to be in recession from Q3 2023 to Q1 2024,” she added. “Elevated prices, tighter monetary policy, harder-to-get credit, and reduced government spending are poised to dampen economic growth further.”

The Conference Board said the coincident economic index was unchanged in June after rising by 0.2 percent in May.

The lagging economic index also came in unchanged in June after inching up by 0.1 percent in the previous month.

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