Mortgage rates fluctuated this week, but an industry analyst says they should stay low until late summer

  • Mortgage rates haven’t changed drastically since last week or last month.
  • Employment and inflation need to gradually improve for mortgage rates to increase.
  • According to Marvin Loh, Senior Global Macro Strategist at State Street, rates may start to go up in late summer or fall.
  • See Insider’s picks for the best mortgage lenders »

Some mortgage and refinance rates have increased since last week, but others have decreased. The trend is similar since this time last month — rates are fluctuating, but there isn’t a significant shift up or down.

Mortgage rates may change a little from week to week or month to month. But Marvin Loh, Senior Global Macro Strategist at State Street, told Insider that rates should stay relatively low until late this summer or even into autumn.

Employment and inflation need to improve for mortgage rates to increase

Mortgage rates tend to be low when an economy is struggling and high when the economy is thriving.

Employment and inflation are two factors that seriously affect mortgage rates. When employment numbers and inflation increase, so do mortgage rates.

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According to the Consumer Price Index for the month of April 2021, inflation is up since March and since this time last year. But the US needs to experience longer, steadier rises in inflation before mortgage rates would react by increasing.

Employment numbers have drastically improved since this time last year. Unemployment was at 6.1% in April 2021, while it had been at 14.8% in April 2020, right after the coronavirus pandemic hit the US.

But before the US economy shut down in response to COVID-19, unemployment was at 3.5%. Loh explained that the country needs to make more progress before mortgage rates would increase.

To take advantage of low rates before they go up, you may want to buy a home or refinance this summer, if possible. Rates could start to spike by the end of summer.

This week’s mortgage rates

Mortgage typeAverage rate todayAverage rate last weekAverage rate last month
15-year fixed2.48%2.48%2.44%
30-year fixed3.36%3.35%3.31%
7/1 ARM4.12%4.14%4.05%
10/1 ARM3.84%4.02%3.85%
30-year FHA2.71%2.91%2.90%
VA mortgage loan2.77%2.71%2.69%

Since last Tuesday, 15-year fixed mortgage rates have held steady. Rates on 30-year fixed and VA mortgages have increased, while rates on 7/1 ARMs, 10/1 ARMs, and FHA mortgages have decreased.

This week’s refinance rates

Mortgage typeAverage rate todayAverage rate last weekAverage rate last month
15-year fixed2.66%2.67%2.65%
30-year fixed3.74%3.74%3.64%
7/1 ARM4.34%4.35%4.46%
10/1 ARM4.42%4.68%4.51%
30-year FHA2.73%2.89%2.86%
VA mortgage loan2.77%2.75%2.70%

Most refinance rates have either decreased or stayed the same since last week. (VA mortgage rates have increased, though.) Rates have also fluctuated a little since this time last month.

Mortgage and refinance rates by state

Check the latest rates in your state at the links below. 

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
Washington DC
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming

About the author

Laura Grace Tarpley is an editor at Personal Finance Insider, covering mortgages, refinancing, and lending. She is also a Certified Educator in Personal Finance (CEPF). Over her five years of covering personal finance, she has written extensively about ways to navigate loans.

Disclosure: This post is brought to you by the Personal Finance Insider team. We occasionally highlight financial products and services that can help you make smarter decisions with your money. We do not give investment advice or encourage you to adopt a certain investment strategy. What you decide to do with your money is up to you. If you take action based on one of our recommendations, we get a small share of the revenue from our commerce partners. This does not influence whether we feature a financial product or service. We operate independently from our advertising sales team.

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