Is RSI The Best Indicator Of Trend Reversal For Bitcoin?

When it comes to technical analysis of financial assets, history holds immense importance. If something has happened over and over again in the past, it is of even more significance. Such is the case with RSI, not only with Bitcoin but also with S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite Index and Dow Jones Index to name a few. Surprisingly enough, even the figure of RSI level of 30 applies to all of these. That means, whenever RSI level comes close to 30, we can expect a trend reversal, even if that reversal is short-lived.

Bitcoin seems to be enjoying its first green day of the week thanks to a trend reversal as indicated by the RSI. It is early to see though if we have reached the bottom. However, it would be reasonable to expect more green days ahead if history is any indicator. Regulatory bodies have also been somewhat lax in their approach to regulating Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the hopes of letting the space flourish without unnecessary intervention. Market sentiment still remains bearish though and mainstream investors seem scared. For professional investors, this is another opportunity to accumulate at low prices. This is because most of the technical indicators point to limited downside from here. BTC has been down more than 70% from its all time high. The decline has been sharp and it has taken out most of the ‘weak hands’. The opposite of ‘weak hands’ is ‘hodlers’ who are prepared to hold on for dear life. Most of these ‘hodlers’ are down more than 50% but they have no intention of selling at a loss. This makes it quite difficult for Bitcoin bears to pull the price lower. Besides the favorable technical indicators displayed on the chart, another positive for Bitcoin bulls is that things could not get much worse from where they are now. We have witnessed a continuous series of bad news days for Bitcoin over the past few months in the form of China ban, Google ban, Twitter ban, Facebook ban, Mt. Gox dump, Mining bans, Crackdown on exchanges etc. This explains why professional traders believe that this might be a good time to start accumulating for long term positions.

Stocks bear a striking similarity to cryptocurrencies at this point. The RSI levels indicate a similar trend change and recovery from recent lows. As indicated in this chart of S&P 500, the market seems to be preparing for the next take off. This goes on to vindicate the strange but factual similarity between cryptomarket and the stock market at this stage. One would assume that cryptocurrencies should behave more like Gold or other commodities but that does not seem to be the case. We have seen the cryptocurrencies market peak as the stock market peaked and fall as the stock market fell. This further highlights the fact that currently investors regard cryptocurrencies as highly speculative assets rather than a safe haven. Whether or not that changes before the next financial crisis remains to be seen.


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