Bitcoin (BTC) Seems Primed For A Christmas Surprise
Bitcoin (BTC) has practically done nothing for the past few weeks. Recently, Vinny Lingham, the founder of Civic made a $20,000 bet that the price of Bitcoin (TBC) would not rise above $28,000 before 2020. This is a really bold statement coming from a Bitcoin (BTC) maximalist. The number of people who are still optimistic regarding a long term rise in the value of BTC/USD still remains very high. However, the fact remains that after every market cycle, the rate of growth reduces. The price cannot climb as aggressively as it has in the past. However, to think that Bitcoin (BTC) may not be able to climb above $28,000 in all of 2019 is equally hard to believe.
Even if we consider that Bitcoin (BTC)’s rate of growth has reduced by half, it would still make it very possible for the price to reach somewhere above $50,000 by the end of 2019. Perhaps Vinny Lingham does not seem to believe that cryptocurrency market cycles also go through halvening. If we consider this to be the end of the correction, then it would be absolutely clear that market cycles have halved. So, if the previous cycle was 4 years long, then this cycle would take 2 years i.e. 2018 to 2020. Even if one does not believe that the correction is over yet, it is still very irresponsible to be making a bet that Bitcoin (BTC) cannot reach $28,000 before 2020. The only way that could happen is if Bitcoin (BTC) were to enter another correction.
Apparently, a lot of investors and analysts still believe that Bitcoin (BTC) could follow a 2014 styled correction. Put simply, this means that the current correction will be followed by another correction, one that would see it break market structure. If we consider that Bitcoin (BTC) market cycles have halved, then we would be assuming that the extended correction has already taken place. However, if we were to assume that a 2014 styled scenario is to unfold without taking into account the effect of halving market cycles, then one would assume that the correction could last another year i.e. throughout 2019. In that case, the price would have to fall well below the $5,800 support. Apparently, most people with this view also think that the stock market is about to take a deep dive and all emerging markets are going to fall with it.
While it is true that emerging markets are going to be hit badly if the stock market is to nosedive today, but the fact remains that the stock market is not ready for that yet. To think that the cryptocurrency market is going to underperform just because the stock market is overbought is a very dangerous assumption. There are still very optimistic predictions in the market that have not been retracted yet. Tim Draper and Tom Lee have both made very bullish predictions and both of them enjoy good reputation when it comes to predictions. However, recently, Arthur Hayes of Bitmex retracted his $50,000 prediction for BTC/USD and now Vinny Lingham has come out saying Bitcoin (BTC) may not rise above $28,000 before 2020. The price may take its time to recover, but we believe that Bitcoin (BTC) is primed for a Christmas surprise this year.
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